Analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on the Mexican economy

Abstract

The economic impact due to the COVID-19 pandemic is now becoming noticeable around the world and Mexico is not an exception to this discouraging picture. It is necessary to propose solutions to mitigate the effects of this crisis. The Mexican government has implemented measures to alleviate the situation, such as the collection of resources to support heath infrastructure, the collaborative work with the armed forces and their sanitary infrastructure, increasing the budget to strengthen social programs to 622,556 million Mexican pesos, granting 2,100,000 of credits to workers and 3,000,000 of credits to the most vulnerable population and, despite that, the situation has been unstable. In this work, some economic factors for the closure of 2020 using ARIMA models were estimated, with the intention of providing solutions to fortify Mexico’s economy. To carry out this analysis, sources such as the World Bank, INEGI, and the Bank of Mexico were consulted. The results show that the CPI will decrease, unemployment will continue to rise, the inflation rate will place itself between 3.0 and 3.5, remittances will remain apparently stable and the MPI (Monthly Purchase Index) shows a positive trend to locate itself close to value 40 by the end of the year. Therefore, it is recommended that the government increases the budget, as well as the anticipation and organization of these kinds of these catastrophes.