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Analysis of the spread rate of SARS-CoV-2 in an isolated system (Diamond Princess cruise ship case study).
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Abstract
Objective. - This work reviews the dispersal behavior of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in two different ways. 1) The Total Probability Theorem is used with which the probability of contagion is inferred, taking into account the asymptomatic population, which is the one that goes unnoticed by health records and the one that accelerates the spread of the virus. 2) The transmission rate is calculated in a conventional way and is used in the SIR (Susceptible, Infected and Recovered) model to make a numerical projection that considers a non-confinement scenario. This helps to understand how the SARS-CoV-2 virus is dispersed in a confined population and with a high degree of interaction in closed places
Material and methods. - The data are obtained mainly from the works of (Mizumoto et al. 2020) and (Zhiming et al. 2020). The equations of the model are solved by Euler's method, using the language “m” by means of the Octave compiler.
Results and discussion. - The resolution of the model SIR using the calculated contagion rate shows a scenario where the rapidity with which the virus is dispersed under unconfined conditions and with considerable interaction between people is visualized. The aggressiveness with which the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spread among the population can be warned early. Regarding the calculated probabilities, the increasing trend is observed as time passes.
Limitations or implications of the study.- The work is only valid in a fixed population and with a homogeneous distribution, which limits the validity of the parameters found to only these cases.
Originality or value of the research.- The inferential statistics in this case had not been carried out, the combination of methodologies is not found in the literature, and the numerical resolution of the SIR model with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its comparison with the virus H1N1 is also not found in the literature.
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