Hot Hand: Existencia y Modelación Estadística
Keywords:
Basketball, conditional probability, Hot Hand, nonparametric statistics, sports data analyticsAbstract
The Hot Hand (HH) phenomenon in basketball has failed to be definitively characterized as a cognitive bias or a statistical reality. To evaluate the increase in success probability after a series of consecutive shots, this study analyzes 210,072 shot attempts made by a group of 481 professional players in the National Basketball Association (NBA) during the 2016-2017 season. To do so, conditional probabilities were calculated, and nonparametric Wilcoxon tests were applied for the entire sample and for each player position. The overall results show positive and statistically significant differences between the observed and hypothetical conditional probabilities under the assumption of independence, suggesting the existence of a Hot Hand effect. When segmented by position, the evidence was concentrated in centers, point guards, and small forwards. These findings suggest that the manifestation of the phenomenon depends on contextual factors and specific roles within the game. They also emphasize the need to expand studies with longitudinal approaches, incorporating contextual variables and complex models that allow for a robust characterization of HH dynamics in basketball.
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